Seller’s Puff

            Hard to believe, but some guy promoting government austerity on the PBS News Hour cited Reinhart-Rogoff—the statistically discredited study—in support of spending cuts.  This study INDICATED that a high (90%) debt-to-GDP ratio stunts economic growth—that it causes contraction resulting in GDP underperformance and job loss.  This PBS guest used the study to posit that cuts in government spending were needed, and that debt reduction was more important than seeding the economy to promote job growth. 

The study used the late 40’s U.S. economy as one example of poor economic growth in a high-debt environment.  However, it ignored post war demobilization as a factor.  Recently, an error was found in the study’s database calculations that revealed the exclusion of extensive data in arriving at its result.  The Reinhart-Rogoff study is thus only valuable as an example of bad science.

            The part that’s hard to believe is that the News Hour’s guest was delivering his misinformation with such a confident, charming, smiling demeanor.  Either he was unaware of the problems with Reinhart-Rogoff, or he was lying.  Also disappointing was the absence of moderator questioning about the reliability of the study.  Around here we believe that accurate in-depth news reporting (not the kind you get from the other networks) is very important.  When ANYBODY uses a study to support their contentions, buyer beware.  When he or she cites “several studies”, reject the argument out-of-hand.  Unless you understand the reference, it’s just glib seller’s puff.